We were sitting and enjoying our Herbal tea in our renovated sunroom. Suddenly, my wife put forward a question, do you know what is unique about this year-2024?
My mind scrolls through the corner of my brain and checks all the important dates about our weddings, birthdays, family birthdays, and neighbor birthdays in nanoseconds, as these questions are often tricky.
If you answer anything incorrectly, then you must sleep in the same sunroom for a couple of days.
I hesitantly said, Honey, she obstructed me and said, I know what you are thinking, don’t worry.
You don’t need to remember any dates for this year.
I laughed and then said, 2024 is a leap year.
She said yes. That is true, what else and took a big sip of her tea.
I am not able to recall any as of now, I surrender. Please enlighten me.
2024 is the biggest election year in the history of mankind.
Globally, more than 50 countries with a combined population of around four billion, which is almost 50% of the world population, will see their citizens try their right to vote and select their desired leaders.
The upcoming election’s geopolitical impact will be significant if any outcome is not as per desired expectations.
Elections will be held in some of the most populous countries, the United States, Indonesia, Russia, and Taiwan to name just a few.
Not only, all major countries are eagerly waiting for these election outcomes, but also, world markets are focused on these events which can make or break the market in any unexpected results.
People’s opinions are divided on these elections, however, Majorly we see two sides, one sees this as a triumph of democracy, and the other is concerned about the risk to democracy.
These election results could potentially lead to an uncertain geopolitical and economic environment all around the world.
The upcoming election’s geopolitical impact will be huge.
Existing conflicts between Israel/Hamas, Russia/Ukraine, and now the United States/Houthi have already divided the world into multiple groups and thwarted international cooperation on global issues like climate change and pandemic management.
This is an era of Evolution of technology, where Artificial intelligence will be actively used to plan election campaigns/strategies and undoubtedly also to negatively impact their opposition party’s image.
ChatGPT, deep-fake, and other tools can be used to spread misinformation and influence these elections.
Election authorities all over the world now have a challenge to make these elections as fair as possible.
Let us brainstorm some of the crucial elections in major countries that have huge implications for world order and prospects for peace in a volatile world.
The consequences are likely to influence global politics for years to come.
1. Taiwan
Election Date: Jan 13, 2024.
Term:4 Years
The first major election in 2024, will be held in Taiwan. Taiwanese voters will head to the polls to choose a new president on Jan. 13.
These elections are crucial for the Taiwanese future as China’s threat to retake the island by force looms over the outcome, with political parties divided with different approaches towards China’s aggression.
The front-runner William Lai, who is currently Taiwan’s vice president, has few or no followers in China and his victory could worsen China-Taiwan tensions.
China sees the Democratic People’s Party as a threat to its “One China” policy, China considers Taiwan as part of its territory even though the Chinese Communist Party has never ruled the island.
China wants the opposition party representative to win over Lai’s Democratic People’s Party.
The result of Taiwan’s vote at the start of the year could set the tone for US-China relations for years to come.
2. India
Election Date: In the April-May timeframe
Term:5 Years
The most populous nation, the world’s biggest democracy- is set to hold general elections in 2024 between April and May.
A country of 1.4 billion people who speak more than one hundred languages divided into vast regions will use the ballot box to elect their leader for the next five-year term, this will be a spectacle to watch for.
These are very significant elections as two opinions are propagating in the country at the moment.
One is that the BJP is polarizing society along communal lines, on the other hand, there is the opinion that the BJP is focusing more on national security and development.
The odds are great for Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
They are expected to win their third election in a row with the majority.
Their position solidifies after winning elections in three Indian states recently.
Indeed, survey polls substantiate that nearly eight out of ten Indians accept Mr. Modi’s work, this big number is the pie of the eye for any democratic head of state.
This survey’s number resonates with several factors:
- India’s economy is growing at 7 percent, the highest among all nations in the world.
- India has become 5th largest economy in the world and is on the way to become 3rd largest economy by 2030.
- Per/Capita incomes across the country have improved.
- Indian markets are performing exponentially well.
- India’s stature has increased on the world stage and become an important geopolitical actor globally, which is a proud moment for all Indian citizens.
- Mr. Modi’s several well-fare schemes are helping the poor and needy directly which helped the BJP to reach the core Indian voter.
On the other hand, India’s opposition parties accused Modi and BJP of undermining the country’s democratic institutions, jailing, and intimidating opponents, and using state investigative agencies to suppress voices.
They also accuse the BJP of ignoring violence against India’s minority communities and promoting Hindutva, a school of thought that wants to cement Hindu supremacy in India.
The fact of the matter is that the Old Congress Party has weakened over a decade and BJP is reaping the benefit. The opposition is struggling to make progress.
They are planning to unite and fight with the BJP as a coalition under the name of I.N.D.I.A.
We need to wait and see if this idea works for the opposition party against Mr. Narendra Modi, who is riding high on the popularity wave, at least in the Hindi heartland of North and Middle India.
3. United States
Election Date: November 5
Term:4 Years
One of the most significant and anticipated elections of 2024 will be the United States of America’s general election for the president.
On November 5, US citizens will go on the poll to choose the 60th US president, who will serve for four years.
Current president Joe Biden hopes to secure a second term, while former president Donald Trump will be his most likely opponent, however, Donald Trump must fight some legal hurdles in the run-up to the polls.
Biden will be the oldest elected president in US history if he can win at 81..
4. Russia
Election Date: March 15
Term:6 Years
Who will win the Russian election?
I believe everybody knows the answer; however, Russians will go for votes in the presidential elections in March.
Without any genuine opponents. Putin will win another six-year term up to at least 2030.
5. Bangladesh
Election Date: January 7
Term:5 Year
Bangladesh began 2024 with the first major election of the year as Sheikh Hasina won a fourth consecutive term as prime minister on January 7.
Sheikh Hasina Bangladesh’s longest-serving prime minister—having won five times, four of which have been consecutive victories—and the longest-serving female head of a country in the world.
Opposition parties boycotted the vote over complaints that it was neither free nor fair.
6. Pakistan
Election Date: February 8
Term:5 Years
Pakistan is going for polls on Feb. 8 under the eye of the country’s powerful military and in an atmosphere where political leaders are frequently prosecuted.
Pakistan has been going through a chaotic political phase—former prime minister Mr. Imran Khan was suddenly removed and imprisoned.
Election officials barred him from running for the next term, however, his main opponent, three-time Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, was allowed to run after his corruption convictions were nullified.
Pakistan is an important ally to both US and China, and time will tell, how Pakistan will balance its international relations with both superpowers.
Worldwide Impacts
An unpleasant and unexpected election results could disturb consumer sentiment around the world, and the same can be seen on world markets. The dollar could swing on election likelihoods and the economic impact will be significant.
In today’s interconnected world, small local reactions can have global trends and ramifications. Resulting in higher business costs, unstable policies, market volatility, and trade restrictions.
Let us hope,2024 will go as expected without any more turmoil’s and surprises. Please share your thought in comment section below.